Thursday, December 07, 2006

Politcal Chaos --- 2008

I had a nice chat at the AEI dinner with John Fortier, a young and very knowlegable election expert at AEI.

He said it had been since 1952 since there had been a Presidential election without either a President or Vice President on the ballot (although there may have been a brief exception for Alben Barkley.)

I knew it had been long --- but not that long.

It is usually a great advantage.

Recall, V.P Al Gore beat Gov. Bush in the popular vote. But that is not how we run elections in the U.S. and VP Gore spinners were spinning up to the last minute that it is the electoral vote that counts, not the popular vote.

So: 2008 will be wide open.

The Great Mentioners have mentioned about 10 possible Presidential primary candidates in each party. Not all actuallay run.

Still, a candidate can "win" a primary with 20-25% of in elections which typically have very low turnouts --- building up wind in his/her sails. A candidate with 15-20% of the vote can do "better than expected" building up wind in his/her sails.

Exactly why our our system of government works I know not.

But it has the best record in the world.

And this may be it's "finest hour."

Go figure.

popular vote.


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