Susan Estrich is right --- occasionally
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This makes sense.
The Iowa Caucus is particularly pernicious: public voting, a five hour process, layers upon layers of selection procedures, with "uncommitted" the usual victor. But because it's first it gets inordinate media coverage.
In 1976 it set Jimmy Carter on the road to victory.
But it is almost impossible to handicap a multi-candidate primary-caucus, convention system. In 2008 we will see them in both parties.
In, say, a 6-candidate primary, a candidate can win with --- what? --- 20% of a small turnout.
Gary Hart and Pat Buchanan lost in caucuses and primaries but they received massive ink.
Why? Because the media-swarm decided they did "better than expected."
In 1992 Buchanan didn't win even one primary, caucus or convention. Yet he was awarded a prime time speaking role at the GOP convention in Houston. He pretty well succeeded in defining the GOP as a racist, exclusive, mean-spirited party.
President Bush's (#41) handlers didn't help by not fighting back.
America is not great because of our brilliant political system, although it manges to work.
Culture counts.
The culture of individual liberty counts most.
Ben
This makes sense.
The Iowa Caucus is particularly pernicious: public voting, a five hour process, layers upon layers of selection procedures, with "uncommitted" the usual victor. But because it's first it gets inordinate media coverage.
In 1976 it set Jimmy Carter on the road to victory.
But it is almost impossible to handicap a multi-candidate primary-caucus, convention system. In 2008 we will see them in both parties.
In, say, a 6-candidate primary, a candidate can win with --- what? --- 20% of a small turnout.
Gary Hart and Pat Buchanan lost in caucuses and primaries but they received massive ink.
Why? Because the media-swarm decided they did "better than expected."
In 1992 Buchanan didn't win even one primary, caucus or convention. Yet he was awarded a prime time speaking role at the GOP convention in Houston. He pretty well succeeded in defining the GOP as a racist, exclusive, mean-spirited party.
President Bush's (#41) handlers didn't help by not fighting back.
America is not great because of our brilliant political system, although it manges to work.
Culture counts.
The culture of individual liberty counts most.
Ben
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