Thursday, December 28, 2006

John Edwards is a loser --- but

I don't think much of John Edwards -- but 2008 is the first time since 1952 that either a President or a Vice President hasn't been on the primary ballots. (There was some small glitch regarding V.P. Alben Barkley in 1952.) There has been Bush, Nixon, Johnson, Clinton --- this yields an enormous advantage.

At least ten people are being mentioned by the Great Mentioners for a 2008 Run for the Roses.

Suppose 6 run on each side.

A person can win with 18-19% percent of the vote. A Dark Horse can get 7/24 coverage for doing "better than expected" and a media wave. It's happened.

In many states no more than 20% of the voters turn out for the primary.

And there is the possibilty of a Third Party or Independent candidacy.

This always seen as rare --- stop the presses !!!

But Abraham Lincoln won as a Third or Fourth Party Candidate. Former President Theodore Rossevelt finished second in a three man race. Ross Perot was well in front of GHWBush and WJClinton --- before he went stark raving loopy. He still received 19% of the vote, and, in effect, made Clinton a winner. (See the Think Tank special Third Parties.)

My own dream for 2008 a Third Party (winning) ticket of Sen. Lieberman with either Sen. McCain or Rudy Giuliani as a running mate. Who would be at the top of such a ticket --- if it occurs --- remains to be seen.

These are good men all.

Moreover, a Third Party President would not be locked into positions on issues like abortion, gun control, nuclear power or quotas.

It would go a long way to breaking the power of special interest groups and lobbyists.

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