Monday, July 03, 2006

Demographics = politics = economics = power, influence and much less greenhouse effect.

Birth rates (Total Fertility Rates) — equal the number of children have fallen in every country of the world. Women in Greater Tokyo — 30 million people bear, on an age specific rate, give birth on average of 0.99 children each, below half the Reproduction rate of 2.1 children per woman in modern countries. This diminishment of population proceeds geometrically, not leaving many Japanese to make Game Boys, great cars, or miracle drugs.

The situation, if anything is worse in Russia: a TFR of about 1.3 , but with substantial emigration, alcoholism and suicide. Some smaller European nations may well “go out of business” as the demographers pungent phrase has it.

In China the “birth dearth” (my coinage) began earlier than elsewhere. Thanks to the crazed coercive one child family of China their future pensions will quite possibly be impossible to deal with — except with hemlock.

India is in much better shape. Fertility has come way down, but there is little worry of revolution by the masses and a buoyant spirit of entrepreneurialism.

In the cat bird’s seat in the U.S. America is growing more rapidly than any other major nation; from about 300 million today to about 500 million in 2300 according to the UN Population Division projections, which may well be low as U.S TFRs remain high (just barely below the replacement level) and which be under-stated. The 20th Century was called the “American Century.”


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